Timer and ETF Strategy Update. 07/11/08

Both my Canadian and US timers remain short/cash. The US strategies maintained their improvement in CAGR versus buy-and-hold on average. The Canadian strategy improved its outperformance over a buy-and-hold strategy.

Starting with this post, I am including the Ulcer Index. Given the high UI of the QLD/QID strategy, I don't see much reason to use it unless you believe that the inverse relationship between the US stock market (as far as swing trading is concerned) and gold isn't going to continue. If you are comfortable with the idea that the price of gold will move inversely in relationship to the S&P500, then the QLD/IAU strategy may provide excellent returns with less volatility. I am more comfortable with the QLD/RWM strategy and for that reason my current US holdings are 87% RWM and 13% IAU.

As with all model portfolios, bear in mind that past performance is absolutely no guarantee of future performance!