This Blog Has a New Home

I had planned to do this later but I think sooner is better. I am moving to http://www.etf2x.com and using WordPress.

Comparing Proshares QLD/Cash Model Against TimingCube

The folks at TimingCube have a button on the left side of their homepage which indicates that they are ranked #1 over one year by the nice people at TimerTrac. For the fun of it, I thought I would compare one of my Proshares QLD models against TimingCube. To be fair, I'll use my QLD/Cash model for the comparison.

TimingCube's signal returns are here. If you followed the TimingCube Nasdaq 100 model starting on August 01, 2006, by August 18, 2008 you would be up by 2.4% less commissions. My Proshares models start on August 02, 2006 so if you invested following the QLD/Cash model starting on that day you would be up by 96.9% less commissions by August 18, 2008. Of course, this isn't quite an apples versus apples comparison given that my model uses a double exposure ETF and would therefore likely carry higher risk. I'll leave it to my readers/subscribers to determine if the difference in return (96.9% vs 2.4% over two years) is warranted by the increased risk.

 

Test Post

Just testing to see if my posts appear at Covestor after I changed the name of my blog.

ETF Timer Model Update. 9/19/08

I have renamed my blog to ETF2X to more accurately reflect the content - namely an emphasis on my models which use proprietary timers and apply them to the US and Canadian stock markets.  Hopefully I haven't screwed up the RSS feed for my subscribers!

As seen in the table below, my preferred models which are highlighted in blue continue to outperform their respective markets year-to-date by a wide margin.  Not only do the models outperform as measured by percentage gain, they also have lower ulcer indexes and lower maximum drawdowns than a buy-and-hold-the-market strategy.  As I have stated before, past performance doesn't guarantee future performance!

As a Canadian, most of my investments following the HXU/XSB model.  Despite the incredible 7.5% rally in the Canadian market today, the S&P/TSX 60 would have to tack on another 12.6% just to get to where it was on June 12 when my model signalled that it was time to go to a money market ETF (CMR) or a short term bond fund (XSB).  These models won't make correct calls all the time (such a model doesn't exist) but I am hopeful that following the ones highlighted in blue will keep me ahead of a buy-and-hold strategy.  A nice facet of these models is the very low maintenance inherent in them.  I never have to research a stock, emotions are held in check, and very little time is required each week.  Of course, the proof is in the pudding and there isn't much pudding yet (i.e. the time period for which the models have been tested is short).

 

 

 

 

 

QLD and HXU Timer Updates

With the stock market volatility this week and increasing traffic to my site, I thought I should post a mid-week update.

Domain Names ETF2X Are Mine

As this blog is now primarily focused on the application of my Canadian and US timers to double exposure (2X) ETF's (namely QLD, QID and HXU), I decided to buy the etf2x.com and etf2x.ca domains today. At some point in time, I plan to develop etf2x.com and etf2x.ca into professional sites but I have to establish my credibility first.

Comparing My QLD Market Timing Model With a Commercial Timer

Out of curiosity, I decided to compare the performance of my QLD market timing models with the performance of the QLD/QID model presented on Stock Traders Daily's web site.  Based on the returns posted on their site, their Investment Rate Model achieved a one year return as of 05/05/08 of 42.1% (dividends not included).  In comparison, the one year return as of 05/05/08 for my QLD/QID model is 63.5% and the one year return for my QLD/TIP model (which more suits my risk tolerance) is 43.1%.

The cost for a "Platinum Subscription" to Stock Traders Daily Service is $199/mo.  This subscription offers more than market timing but I'll  leave it up to my subscribers to decide where they get the best value.