Market Timing Signal

On February 13, my timing signal for the Canadian market switched from short to long. Since August 31, 2004, the S&P/TSX composite index average return after one of my long signals was 3.9% and the average return on the index after a short signal was 1.4% indicating that the indicator may have value. If you look at a chart of the S&P/TSX from 2003 to present it has been a great upward ride. I think that market timing will prove to be of greater importance going forward than it was in the past five years since there is absolutely no chance that the S&P/TSX is going to generate the performance in the next five years that it did in the past five years.



My US market timing signal remains short even though it was very close to going long over the past ten days but then failed to follow through with positive market performance.